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tv   Options Action  CNBC  October 21, 2017 6:00am-6:30am EDT

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we're live at the nasdaq market site, look who decided to stick around for the show, brian and the guys are getting ready here's what's coming up. >> you're looking at a small portable computer called the ibm 5100 it's helping a lot of different people do their work more productively >> ibm shares have helped investors reap productive gains. and there's something in the charts that's pointing to an even bigger rally. we'll tell you how to cash in. plus this one group of stocks that seems poised for a breakout when it reports earnings next week here's a hint.
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we'll give you the name and how to profit. and talk about a genius trade. we've got a way to get long on apple for just three bucks. >> no way! >> way and we'll show you how it's time to risk less and make more the action begins right now. >> let's get to it next week is the busiest one for earnings season. we'll hear from 172 s&p companies and 12 dow components. mcdonald's, caterpillar, boeing, amazon, microsoft, oouu.p.s. roughly 70% of companies see revenue beeps. should you keep buying stocks into earnings? >> you know, this is interesting. we have a little bit of volatility paradox going on here we frequently hear people expressing concern about valuations i don't know that valuations necessarily are the precurls forea potential drop
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i think i look at volatility, i see it as low as it is i see actually continued confidence in the market right here the other thing is that we are seeing some dispersion, that is, on these earnings results we've seen financials, for example, which probably did a little better on an operating basis, stocks don't move. something like materials which basically are otherwise flat stocks do well, industrials not so much so stocks going in different directions that basically is going to create some steadiness in the market. i think market unsteadiness is what would really cause investors -- >> we've seen all year long, for a couple of years, this rotation between different sectors. so if you have this dispersion, then you're going to get active managers back in the space moving between sectors, that's going to - >> meaning things aren't correlated >> exactly index funds have been coming in. now things are not correlated, separating you have opportunity. >> we see that in the charts >> in terms of the quarterly
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cycle, talking about the earnings, the thing that's really important is that the revenue has been better than expected the earnings, if you looked at the blended average earnings growth of companies that reported and those that have yet to report it's running about 1.7%, a fairly muted return series the top line for the first time is exceeding the bottom line and exceeding estimates. that obviously is important. >> it's a lot harder obviously for management to manipulate revenues you can have share buy-backs that can boost earnings per share. but revenues, that basically tells the tale if it's growing at a rate that's better than expected, that signals that there is some underpinning strength. >> carter, you're looking at a sleeper pick. >> yeah. so i know the big names like tech names but let's look at u.p.s. so transports, industrials industrials had a big day today. obviously a huge laggard, speaking about a sleeper coming to life, ge. i thought we could drill down u.p.s. which does have earnings next week and i'm going to make the bet that it's going to be good, or go up whether it's good or bad since u.p.s. is ipo, it is a
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market performer, the numbers speak for themselves the issue is of late, since inception back in '99, u.p.s. versus the s&p, dead heat. now from the absolute low, the 6th of march, 2009, i think this is where it gets interesting u.p.s., of course, lagged the market now more immediately, take a look at where we are just over the last one, two years. i think, again, this is the opportunity that u.p.s. has lagged, it's a big name we can know what's going on in internet shipping, i think it's a name to play so here's a chart. no drawings or annotations by me i think what you can see that's important that is we're right at the prior high and the presumption is that after we back and fill in this high, we can exceed this high so if you get rid of what i drew and put it in actual, i think you're going to get this line here i think you're going to get your breakout here. i'm going to make a bet that u.p.s. will make a high.
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i want to be long in any earnings. >> so mike, what's your trade? >> this is an interesting case usually earnings are basically large contributors to price movement but actually in the case of u.p.s., the movement on earnings is typically around 2% where you do see movement is through the holidays operational challenges historically at this time of year they've had situations where they've ultimately disappointed in the next quarter. so i think the best way to do this, especially with options premiums as low as they are, is buy the at the money call. looking out to january, buy the 120 calls, $3.20 you're spending approximately $3 relative to the current stock price to make that bullish bet, only has to move up 3% between now and january. i think the chances it makes a move of that magnitude or larger is very, very good i don't expect it necessarily after earnings. >> what do you think of the trade? >> i'm going to have to disagree to me this looks double toppy. we've seen a massive run-up, now ortho headwinds coming out,
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amazon's going to have their own air fleet, other issues out. the last couple of years they have had operational issues. i'd rather take the shot on the short side here. >> don't you think, though, that what is really going to propel the stock ultimately is going to be how holiday season operates for them they figured out, as i pointed out, they've had operational challenges, they seem to be sorting those things out these are companies that are ultimately going to benefit from an operating expense from emerging technologies. those are all potential benefits they're doing other thingswith their less than full truck level delivers it's trading at a discount to its historical valuation. >> discount to the market. >> for a reason. right? i mean, it's trading there for a reason to me i think there's more risk that they don't hit the numbers that they don't hit expectations, than they do - >> i think the market's going to be higher through january. >> do i think the market's going to be higher yeah, i'll go yeah. >> you think this is going to dwernlg further from the market? that even in a rising
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thailand - >> yes, or - >> the gap is going to be filled the disparity between the two stocks won't be filled >> right, that's the opportunity bet that you're making. >> it's a sleeper that's going to surprise to the upside. >> now to a stock that was a big winner this week, ibm. the big blue was the mvp of the dow, serving nearly 10%, a surprising move given the stock's troubled past. who better to break it down than our own mvp dom chew. >> i do what i can for the team here at cnbc and options action but ibm hasn't been pulling its weight it's been a laggard over the year to date and last 12 months but the earnings report tuesday afternoon went a long way towards clawing back some performance. by the time the dust settled on wednesday's close, big blue had gained close to 9%, its best daily performance since january 21, 2009, a day it gained over 11%. it was the best post-earnings day for the stock going back to
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2002 it was only the third time in the last 18 quarters when the stock actually gapped higher after an earnings report we saw a lot of that action play out in the options market, of course the first four days the week we saw options trading volume for ibm four times greater than average. if you look at the vast majority of that volume, yes, it happened after the earnings report was released so could this be a turning point in sen it for big blue in the skeptics say it will take a lot more to get back on track, the stock. the bulls say this could be that turning point on a stock many have given up on over the past couple of years. of course that debate rages on >> all right, we'll take it to the desk dom chew at headquarters i'll kick it off, do you think this was the moment for ibm? >> i do. i think this is a change in sentiment. this is a change in the way that the company's operating. the way they market is perceiving that. we've had this turnaround story that the market has not believed for along time
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after this quarter you have to believe in this turnaround story. to me i think they hit all the different areas of the growth areas going forward. talk about this is underperformed in the market i think this has much more potential to outperform than the other names. >> from a fundamental standpoint we've seen this a couple of times where you've had mature companies like microsoft, so on, where people were concerned that they were not evolving and weren't going to be able to take advantage of new opportunities in the marketplace, especially in services, things like cloud, which is obviously -- and a.i., something ibm has been touting i think this signals -- and i have such bad performance coming into this point, right if there wasn't actually a big sentiment change we wouldn't have seen this big pop there would have been lenity of ready sellers and there weren't. it seems people are beginning to believe this is going to be it you still have a lot farther to go, talking about a company that had $100 billion in revenues, $15 billion in cloud, a long way to go. >> here's what this is there's no operating business
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per se what they've done is cut their flow in half they eat themselves for a living they buy back their shares they've done it more aggressively than almost any prominent company out there. the issue is, this is a matter of technique, it's quite right what brian said, when something gaps up, it usually is not an isolated event typically you get two or three gaps two down in quarterly misses a quarterly beat that's this aggressive is typically followed by something that's equally aggressive so the risk or the chance here is that you get back to those drops of may when it plunged from sort of the 170 level i think we've got a chart there. that's the upside that i see. >> wow. >> yeah, huh what do you know. i should have agreed on u.p.s., now i feel bad. >> 3.7% dividend yield is not bad while you're waiting for this further gap higher. >> if they can get -- if the market xwifrs them a pass, in a sense, which i don't think they have quite yet, but to connor's point i think they're ultimately going to start giving them a pass similar to how they give
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amazon a pass, and you believe in this story, the expectations i think are still too low for this company, therefore surprise not upside. >> going to take a quick break for everything "options, jooction check out our website sign up for our super-cool newsletter it as must-read. what are you waiting for here's what's coming up next apple's market cap is north of $800 billion. >> that's a lot of money >> it sure is. so we'll show you how to buy shares for 3 bucks plus, calling all "options action" fans reach into your pocket, grab your fan, tweet us your question @optionsaction. if it's nice we'll answer it on air. i think it's terrific. your kids go to college and you start trading. >>yeah, 5 years already. 5 years, hmm. you ever call your broker for help? >>once, when volatility spiked... and? >>by the time they got me an answer, it was too late.
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td ameritrade's elite service team can handle your toughest questions right away- with volatility, it's all about your risk distribution. good to know. >>thanks, mike. we got your back kate. >>does he do that all the time? oh yeah, sometimes he pops out of the couch. help from real traders. only with td ameritrade.
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well, it'sonce again.eason >>yeah. lot of tech companies are reporting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out.
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td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. that way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. >>huh. feel better? >>much better. yeah, me too. wow, you really did a number on this thing. >>sorry about that. that's alright. i got a box of 'em. thousands of opinions. one estimate. the earnings tool from td ameritrade. welcome back to "options." apple unveiling its flagship store in chicago today >> melissa, actually the governor of illinois just walked into this apple store right behind me here the mayor of chicago, rahm emanuel, is here as well take a look at this line, i'll have the cameraman pan over. this is a line of people waiting to get into the store which is going to open its doors for the first time here at the top of the hour also on hand here today was apple's ceo tim cook, who talked about why he thought it was important to be here for this opening. >> our very first flagship was
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right here in chicago, 2003. now, 14 years later, we're here in this beautiful store with a great connection to the community, in a larger way than ever it's got all of our latest innovations in the store and a connection to the community that's deeper than anything we've done before and so it feels fantastic. >> so apple isn't the only big tech company opening new brick and mortar stores. there are others for example, amazon is too but apple retail chief angela aarons told me she didn't worried about that competition. >> i don't think think about it, i've read they're investing, ali bah bah's investing, google's going to open stores i've read that and honestly i think it's great great for the economy, great for employment, i think that it reinforces that physical retail is not going away, that there is a purpose. people want the human connection they want a place to pick up
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their products, et cetera. so i think the great news is, as you said, we're nearly 500 stores ahead of them the tenure of our employees is unbelievable we have an over 80% retention rate in america alone. so i think it will take them a little while to catch up >> and more stores are on the way, including washington, d.c., paris, and milan >> all right, thank you very much, josh lipton in chicago. apple shares have been under pressure after unveiling its next-generation iphones, been down about 4%. with earnings and the release of the iphone 10 two weeks away, how should you play it >> we're going to talk about using a calendar spread. so one of the things we would expect if wire going to put a trade like this, that the stock's not going to move that much in the near term. we're looking at near term consolidation. the other thing that you're looking for, because you're buying a longer-dated option, is a longer-term catalyst we've got earnings first week of
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november, i think the catalyst is going to be holiday earnings, not so much the earnings event finally, oftentimes options premiums get a little bit elevated into earnings i want to sell that premium and buy the holiday move so we can take a look at the stock price here we can see basically what's been going on sideways, down slightly as you pointed out doesn't seem that strong and i'm not expecting great earnings out of this for those reasons. this is the trade. pretty easy. for $3 we can buy the november-january 160 call spread you can buy the januarys for dlf 5.85, sell the novembers for $2.85. i don't expect these to decay that much. this is kind of the money you're hoping to collect but risking about 2% of the current stock price to do this trade >> do you like calendar spreads? >> i really like this trade in this particular case because you have two catalysts so when you're looking at that, then i think this works out very, very well. we know this apple story is about the iphone 10.
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it's not about the 8 it's the holiday season that matters. i really like it a lot. >> how do the charts look? i get nervous when somebody starts drawing lines all over it >> if you think about it, a chart as pictorial representation of the collective judgment of market participants. i think if one were to take that and look at this chart here, maybe what we know is that apple has broken trend it's not a big break, it's not a massive rollover, but its performance is sluggish. i think that's what the word dormant is about and it's what you're trying to do in this trade the stock is the same price it was in late may. think where market is versus late may. >> the trade is it's going to be essentially in the same price after earnings because really what people want to know is, are their products going to sell really well? are these new stores, like the one in chicago, not just going to be a destination for people to go and look at product but to actually buy it? and they obviously have very good retail sales per square foot but that's not going to be
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the only answer for this company. we're going to need to see very strong holiday sales i think for it to go higher. >> this is a tricky setup. we have the earnings, then the 10 launch. we'll probably get little data points here and there about how well the preorders have come in, how -- >> data points were made two, three days ago when it gapped out. there's always these things lurking. >> that's exactly why this trade is great because i don't think much is going to happen into earnings. then after that, in the holiday season, i suspect josh lipton will be showing us all the lines out there. lines are big, apple goes higher. >> the point i would make is we like situation wlerts we can sell premium into events it's hard when options premiums are low. here we're buying longer-dated premium, selling the shorter-dated one. that's the way you can find ways to collect. intel hitting its highest level in nearly 17 years the charts are pointing to more gains. got a question for one of the traders? send us a tweet, if it's nice, maybe we'll read it later in the show i think it's terrific.
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your kids go to college and you start trading. >>yeah, 5 years already. 5 years, hmm. you ever call your broker for help? >>once, when volatility spiked... and? >>by the time they got me an answer, it was too late. td ameritrade's elite service team can handle your toughest questions right away- with volatility, it's all about your risk distribution. good to know. >>thanks, mike. we got your back kate. >>does he do that all the time? oh yeah, sometimes he pops out of the couch. help from real traders. only with td ameritrade.
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well, it'sonce again.eason >>yeah. lot of tech companies are reporting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out. td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. that way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. >>huh. feel better? >>much better. yeah, me too. wow, you really did a number on this thing. >>sorry about that. that's alright. i got a box of 'em. thousands of opinions. one estimate. the earnings tool from td ameritrade.
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1.05. >> it's been a wild ride for the home improvement retailer, rallying to a new all-time high before pulling back. the first leg of your trade expires today. >> that expired worthless, exactly what we want to have happen we're still long, the longer dated call do we think the breakout is going to happen? otherwise sell the november, in this trade about a buck and a half. >> it's fallen back kind of where we started from there you came by more time, the presumption is home depot goes higher. >> we got that time. >> exactly also three weeks ago, sam bet
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intel shares were headed higher. he bought the 38 strike calls expiring next week >> intel shares are up already more than 6% dan isn't here with us today he did scent send a message from an undisclosed wooded area to tell us how he is managing this trade. >> hello, sorry i can't be there today, i want to give you a quick update on the intel trade idea i detailed a couple weeks ago. at that point the stock was 38, targeting earnings this coming week at the time it was the october 27th weekly 38 call for 80 cents. at this point i think we want to roll them up a little bit to the october 40s. those are about 85 cents right now when the stock was trading at 40.30 thanks a lot, good luck. >> very, very undisclosed. >> i know. >> like those ones where they do the blurring >> he could be at a home depot, probably mike what would you do >> agree with him on this.
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that was a great trade, one of these situations options premiums were too low. you had the calls trading what they would be worth the day before earnings, weeks before earnings now looking at these 40 strike calls. only trading very slightly above perry. that's a good way to make your bullish bets. >> i like this trade i'm curious what dan's hiding from, whispering in the woods, very strange >> it was creepy. >> like he's on the lam or something like that. >> exactly, exactly. >> for sure. >> this is a classic sleeper semis have been hot. intel is lag this is the kind of thing you can get if you get a catch-up trade, it's fantastic. up next, your tweets and the final call from the options pit. i think it's terrific. your kids go to college and you start trading. >>yeah, 5 years already. 5 years, hmm. you ever call your broker for help? >>once, when volatility spiked... and? >>by the time they got me an answer, it was too late.
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td ameritrade's elite service team can handle your toughest questions right away- with volatility, it's all about your risk distribution. good to know. >>thanks, mike. we got your back kate. >>does he do that all the time? oh yeah, sometimes he pops out of the couch. help from real traders. only with td ameritrade.
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ason once again. >>yeah. lot of tech companies are reporting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out. td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. that way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. >>huh. feel better? >>much better. yeah, me too. wow, you really did a number on this thing. >>sorry about that. that's alright. i got a box of 'em. thousands of opinions. one estimate. the earnings tool from td ameritrade. it's a nice tweet, please read it.
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just did just did moving on, what's the options play leading up to microsoft earnings next week >> volatility again has been so low, this stock still looks pretty good to me. i think you want to make that -- basically press the bullish bet out to january. >> here's something good, never in its history has it gone this long without having a checkback to its 150-day moving average. >> that is good or bad >> so orderly it's good. >> brian kelly, is the tesla double top played out, what are your views into earn sngds. >> i think it will break 345, you want to be aggressively short this, the double top is in and going lower. >> all right, time for the "final call. last word from the option pits. >> a look u.p.s. into earnings for a 5%, 6% move. >> january calls on u.p.s. to make that play. >> thank you for joining us, brian. >> thanks for having me, a lot
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of fun i like to make hay when the sun shines you want to buy protection on your portfolio at these low volatility levels. >> i'm melissa lee thanks for watching. check out optionsaction.cnbc.com or @optionsaction. >> announcer: the following program is a paid advertisement for the hd mirrorcam, brought to you by inventel products, llc. yep, they're out there, driving recklessly, causing accidents, and driving up your insurance rates! this is a show about car accidents... ...classic cars... ...and the hd mirrorcam, the personal security camera for your car. this is... "accidents caught on camera" with the hd mirrorcam. today, we're going to hear from people who have been in accidents and used the hd mirrorcam to pr

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